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Fiscal Dominance: How Worried Should We Be?

  • Article
  • Apr 3, 2023
  • #Economics #PoliticalEconomy #CentralBank
Eric Leeper
@EricLeeper
(Author)
www.mercatus.org
Read on www.mercatus.org
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When new Prime Minister Liz Truss’s surprise plans to raise fiscal spending and cut taxes were revealed by Kwasi Kwarteng, the United Kingdom’s chancellor of the exchequer, on Septe... Show More

When new Prime Minister Liz Truss’s surprise plans to raise fiscal spending and cut taxes were revealed by Kwasi Kwarteng, the United Kingdom’s chancellor of the exchequer, on September 23, 2022, bond markets crashed. Primary budget surpluses are the cash flows that back government bonds. Lower surpluses make bonds less attractive, reducing demand for them. Sterling depreciated 4.7 percent against the dollar, and yields on long-term gilts rose 100 basis points in the days that followed. Five days later, the Bank of England announced that “to restore orderly market conditions,” it would buy long-dated government bonds “on whatever scale necessary” until October 14; after that date, the bank would begin to shrink its balance sheet (Bank of England 2022). Not until the chancellor was replaced and Truss ultimately resigned on October 20 did markets return to preannouncement levels. This is fiscal dominance.

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John Cochrane @JohnHCochrane · Apr 3, 2023
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Excellent essay on fiscal-monetary interaction by Eric Leeper.
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