The West has helped Ukraine in its war against Russia in two main ways – through military assistance to Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia. Over the last few months the pace of deliveries of weapons and ammunition has been stepped up in preparation for a new Ukrainian offensive on which much now depends. There are anxious questions about the state of Ukrainian air defences and artillery, and how well infantry fighting vehicles and tanks will fare against entrenched Russian defences. This was discussed in my previous post. We will start to get some answers soon enough.

As for the other part of the strategy – economic sanctions – that appears to have been taken about as far as it can go. There have been ten rounds of sanctions since 2014 and so the big moves have been made. Another round of sanctions is under discussion but with each new stage consensus becomes harder to find on harsh new measures. The Group of Seven (G7) countries are due to meet in Japan on 19 May to discuss the next round of sanctions. The US has proposed that that all exports to Russia be banned, with only some limited exemptions, but this has met stiff resistance from Japan and the EU. The most likely outcome is that the next round will largely tie up loose ends and close loopholes. The economic effects of these sanctions on the Russian economy have not been negligible but their political effects are generally held to be disappointing.