assume $PXD is representative of the marginal oil producer (fairly accurate)

given the *hyper* short duration of shale oil wells, continuing to drill destroys shareholder value vs. keeping it in the ground

drilling w/ hyper decline rates = illusion of stable production

the market still hasn't figured out that almost all shale oil capex is maintenance capex, the biggest anomaly of the shale revolution wasn't just the capital destruction, it was the production growth

if you truly believe any of what you've been telling your shareholders re: shareholder returns you're laying down rigs right now, production be damned

even more true if you've got limited inventory window (which at these decline rates they almost all have)

the incentives for mgmt have changed, it's not maxing out options & cash comp now, it's how much can they make as shale executives per year w/ less than 10 yrs of inventory

alas, the shale illusion is strong and shale oil management teams are hesitant to lay down rigs at risk of the market seeing them for what they are -- melting ice cubs