When you see inflation go down and the real economy continue to do well, you should probably look around for a positive supply shock — something that allows the economy to produce lots of things more cheaply. And when you look for a positive supply shock, you should usually start by looking at whether energy has gotten cheaper, since everything requires energy to produce, and energy prices tend to change very quickly. And indeed, when we look at oil prices, we see that there was a big and sustained drop right in the summer of 2022, when everything started to go right for the U.S. economy: