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No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims about the 2020 election

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www.pnas.org
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After the 2020 US presidential election Donald Trump refused to concede, alleging widespread and unparalleled voter fraud. Trump’s supporters deployed several statistical arguments... Show More

After the 2020 US presidential election Donald Trump refused to concede, alleging widespread and unparalleled voter fraud. Trump’s supporters deployed several statistical arguments in an attempt to cast doubt on the result. Reviewing the most prominent of these statistical claims, we conclude that none of them is even remotely convincing. The common logic behind these claims is that, if the election were fairly conducted, some feature of the observed 2020 election result would be unlikely or impossible. In each case, we find that the purportedly anomalous fact is either not a fact or not anomalous.

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Jason Scott Montoya @JasonSMontoya · Jul 20, 2023
  • Curated in USA: Did Trump Win the 2020 Presidential Election By A Large Margin?
“For each claim, we find that what is purported to be an anomalous fact about the election result is either not a fact or not anomalous. In many cases the alleged fact, if shown to withstand scrutiny, would hardly constitute convincing evidence that Biden was elected due to fraud: A modest advantage to Biden in counties that chose to use Dominion machines, for example, could be explained by chance, by factors not accounted for in statistical models, or indeed by pro-Trump fraud undertaken using other voting machines. As it happens, the allegedly anomalous features we consider appear mundane once properly measured or placed in the appropriate context.”
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