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Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

  • Paper
  • 2020
  • #EconomicGrowth #Economics
Charles I. Jones
@CharlesIJones
(Author)
John Van Reenen
@JohnVanReenen
(Author)
Michael Webb
@MichaelWebb
(Author)
Nicholas Bloom
@I_Am_NickBloom
(Author)
web.stanford.edu
Read on web.stanford.edu
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Long-run growth in many models is the product of two terms: the effective number of researchers and their research productivity. We present evidence from various industries, product... Show More

Long-run growth in many models is the product of two terms: the effective number of researchers and their research productivity. We present evidence from various industries, products, and firms showing that research effort is rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply. A good example is Moore’s Law. The number of researchers required today to achieve the famous doubling of computer chip density is more than 18 times larger than the number required in the early 1970s. More generally, everywhere we look we find that ideas, and the exponential growth they imply, are getting harder to find.

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Patrick Collison @PatrickCollison
  • Curated in Growth Collection
"Across a broad range of case studies at various levels of (dis)aggregation, we find that ideas — and in particular the exponential growth they imply — are getting harder and harder to find."
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