Thread
People will call me crazy but--
Life is a simulation.
The future isn't happening to us, we create it with every decision.
To control the future, you need to know the rules of the sim.
Here's 4 major principles of sim logic (made easy) to shape your mindset & solve life:
🧵
Life is a simulation.
The future isn't happening to us, we create it with every decision.
To control the future, you need to know the rules of the sim.
Here's 4 major principles of sim logic (made easy) to shape your mindset & solve life:
🧵
1. Bayes' Theorem
A powerful concept in probability.
We're Bayesian learners, some of us better than others.
In Bayesian statistics, probability is our degree of belief.
We can update this belief when we're faced with new info that suggests our prior belief was off.
A powerful concept in probability.
We're Bayesian learners, some of us better than others.
In Bayesian statistics, probability is our degree of belief.
We can update this belief when we're faced with new info that suggests our prior belief was off.
A simple concept.
But what happens when you're confronted with evidence that you're wrong?
Do you get defensive?
Do you self-destruct?
Do you double down on your old beliefs and keep going?
But what happens when you're confronted with evidence that you're wrong?
Do you get defensive?
Do you self-destruct?
Do you double down on your old beliefs and keep going?
Your success in the sim depends on your ability to update your beliefs unhindered by the pride of being right.
A rational agent accepts being wrong with dignity.
The agent knows the holes in their thinking are hidden leverage points to advance.
A rational agent accepts being wrong with dignity.
The agent knows the holes in their thinking are hidden leverage points to advance.
2. Pareto Distribution
It's a frequent phenomenon in self-organizing systems--like human civilizations.
You may know it as the 80/20 principle.
It suggests that a small percentage at the top is afforded the majority of opportunity.
It's a frequent phenomenon in self-organizing systems--like human civilizations.
You may know it as the 80/20 principle.
It suggests that a small percentage at the top is afforded the majority of opportunity.
We can interpret it as privilege as a function of success.
Basically--the more successful you are, the better shot you have at more.
Kinda makes sense, but can lead to feelings of unfairness.
This happens when we think of success as a pie with finite pieces.
Basically--the more successful you are, the better shot you have at more.
Kinda makes sense, but can lead to feelings of unfairness.
This happens when we think of success as a pie with finite pieces.
But actually--SUCCESS IS UNBOUNDED.
There are infinite ways to be successful.
Our problems are not keeping us from success. Solving problems IS success.
To have a crack at big problems with big impact and big paydays--
We first need to solve our own.
There are infinite ways to be successful.
Our problems are not keeping us from success. Solving problems IS success.
To have a crack at big problems with big impact and big paydays--
We first need to solve our own.
I'm not saying it's easy BUT--
We do this knowing solutions are recursive.
They bring more possibility and bigger fish to fry.
We do this knowing solutions are recursive.
They bring more possibility and bigger fish to fry.
Leveraging this phenomenon is a matter of changing your attitude from NOW THIS? to WHAT'S NEXT?
The world values powerful solvers.
To be one, you need to reframe your perception of a problem.
The world values powerful solvers.
To be one, you need to reframe your perception of a problem.
3. Black Swan Principle
A brilliant flaneurial observation by @nntaleb.
All assimilated methods are the result of a Black Swan.
It's a highly impactful event of miniscule probability we brush off as normal after the fact.
9/11. The internet. The pandemic.
All Black Swans.
A brilliant flaneurial observation by @nntaleb.
All assimilated methods are the result of a Black Swan.
It's a highly impactful event of miniscule probability we brush off as normal after the fact.
9/11. The internet. The pandemic.
All Black Swans.
Basically--
Something big happens, and we reorganize life as we know it. Things are normal, then it happens again.
They start in the blind spots of our overconfidence.
Sounds scary--but they can be positive too.
Something big happens, and we reorganize life as we know it. Things are normal, then it happens again.
They start in the blind spots of our overconfidence.
Sounds scary--but they can be positive too.
A positive Black Swan takes more time to create impact than a negative one.
So you better get started now.
That's right, a person can be a Black Swan.
These are the individuals among us that change the game.
So you better get started now.
That's right, a person can be a Black Swan.
These are the individuals among us that change the game.
It's the result of completely authentic thinking.
It's a hard time finding success when you're a white swan.
If you want to change the world--or a given domain--you need to solve a problem no one else is solving.
Identify a problem only you can solve.
Be a Black Swan.
It's a hard time finding success when you're a white swan.
If you want to change the world--or a given domain--you need to solve a problem no one else is solving.
Identify a problem only you can solve.
Be a Black Swan.
4. Game Theory
The motion. How we propel forward knowing what we know.
This is the branch of math that deals with strategic decision making.
We're navigating chaos--no outcome is guaranteed.
The motion. How we propel forward knowing what we know.
This is the branch of math that deals with strategic decision making.
We're navigating chaos--no outcome is guaranteed.
Game theory helps us OPTIMIZE our decisions to MAXIMIZE our outcomes in line with what we VALUE.
Nowadays it's applied to just about every industry.
Do I think everyone needs to know the specific math?
No.
But it helps to have this type of intention in your decision making.
Nowadays it's applied to just about every industry.
Do I think everyone needs to know the specific math?
No.
But it helps to have this type of intention in your decision making.
It first requires determining what you value, and most people tend to value the same things.
A few of the basics:
-Security and expansion of a household
-Expression through a specific problem
-The self
A few of the basics:
-Security and expansion of a household
-Expression through a specific problem
-The self
The third one is funny: sometimes that we value ourselves leads to decision making that devalues all three.
But game theory is the math of gratitude.
How can we leverage what we have to give us the best shot at the future we want?
But game theory is the math of gratitude.
How can we leverage what we have to give us the best shot at the future we want?
It's looking for the advantage. It's optimizing.
It's not responding, it's making moves.
When you move with purpose, you maximize every move you make.
Succeeding in the game is a matter of aligning your decisions with what it is you TRULY value and seeking to maximize.
It's not responding, it's making moves.
When you move with purpose, you maximize every move you make.
Succeeding in the game is a matter of aligning your decisions with what it is you TRULY value and seeking to maximize.
Round-up:
1. Bayes' Theorem
2. Pareto Distribution
3. Black Swan Principle
4. Game Theory
I've described two major behaviors of the sim.
And given you two more thought models to navigate them.
1. Bayes' Theorem
2. Pareto Distribution
3. Black Swan Principle
4. Game Theory
I've described two major behaviors of the sim.
And given you two more thought models to navigate them.
These are the First Principles of Success™️!
With the awareness that these things are navigable comes the energy to navigate them.
And by Pareto, you will be rewarded more as you get better at it.
With the awareness that these things are navigable comes the energy to navigate them.
And by Pareto, you will be rewarded more as you get better at it.
Becoming a privileged solver starts by solving small problems.
But when we gain enough privilege to understand how privilege works, we need to pass that privilege to others.
Remember--SUCCESS IS INFINITE.
Help others leverage chaos into success by sharing the first Tweet.
♾
But when we gain enough privilege to understand how privilege works, we need to pass that privilege to others.
Remember--SUCCESS IS INFINITE.
Help others leverage chaos into success by sharing the first Tweet.
♾
Afterthought:
Now that we understand what a Black Swan is, we can move with it.
Times don’t have to be so unprecedented.
It’s just the next level.
Now that we understand what a Black Swan is, we can move with it.
Times don’t have to be so unprecedented.
It’s just the next level.
