Is the Federal Reserve stuck between a rock and a hard place? Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap argues that the monetary tightening needed to tame inflation will inflict serious damage to the economic recovery, to the point that the Fed essentially has a choice between secular inflation and severe recession.

Which door will the Fed choose? Dillian is inclined to believe that the Fed will attempt to chart a “middle path” between both options that will actually result in the dreaded stagflation - where inflation continues to rise while economic growth slows down.

Dillian tells Forward Guidance host Jack Farley why he thinks the ongoing rotation from growth stocks to value stocks will continue, and why he in particular is interesting in buying the shares of “big and ugly” companies. Dillian also shares his views on crypto, gold, and bonds. Filmed on January 14, 2022.

Dillian on Twitter: @dailydirtnap

Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96

Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction
00:44 Will The Fed Cause A Recession?
08:04 Rate Hikes & The Wealth Effect
10:20 Are We At Peak Inflation?
14:30 The Growth to Value Rotation
24:39 Bitcoin and Gold as Inflation Hedges
29:46 Current Sentiment in Crypto
34:26 What Asset Class is Most Vulnerable to Rising Rates?
37:18 Why Certainty Is Bad In Investing
40:52 Thoughts on The IPO and SPAC Process
44:37 Sentiment on the Inflation vs. Deflation Debate