Thread by Major General Mick Ryan
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- Feb 26, 2022
- #Russia
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Hard to believe it is only 2 days since the invasion began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen Russian advances in the north, south & east. These have been costly but will not deter Putin. My 2nd thread of observations, noting the ongoing lack of clarity & abundance of ambiguity. 
2/20 Superb reporting continues from many sources on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This includes @KofmanMichael @maxseddon @IAPonomarenko @RALee85 @shashj @DanLamothe @ikhurshudyan @McFaul @defenceHQ @thestudyofwar among many others.
3/20 As others have already noted, the Russians appear to have exercised a degree of restraint in the use of maximum force. But given the initial lightening, light-weight invasion approach has not gone as well as may have been planned, this may change.
4/20 The longer the Russian campaign for Ukraine takes, the more bitter & destructive fighting will be. The human, economic & political costs will escalate significantly if the Russians cannot quickly secure a general surrender by the Ukrainian military & their government.
5/20 But given the statements by the Ukrainians, particularly their President, there is a lot of fight left in the Ukrainian military, and their people more generally. 
6/20 The Ukrainians will continue to be inspired by the widespread dissemination of the feats of their military personnel. In particular, the courage of the defenders of Snake Island will have an electrifying effect. 
7/20 The phrase “Russian warship, go F*$# yourself” will join other great responses from military history like “Nuts!”. Last week, none of us had heard of Snake Island. Today, none of us will ever forgot what these servants of their nation did there. 
8/20 This highlights an important issue. The Ukrainians so far have been masterful in the use of strategic communications and social media in providing transparency for the world about this Russian invasion. #WelcomeToHell 
9/20 The Ukrainians have leveraged both military & civilian sources to provide updates on fighting, casualties & Russian movements. While these should always be scrutinised, and supporting evidence sought elsewhere, it is a good case study that we must learn lessons from.
10/20 That said, there is a long way to go. Even if the Russians manage to secure Kyiv (and that is far from assured), it is unlikely the Ukrainians will capitulate.
11/20 If there is still a functioning government and military command, with forces in the field, the Ukrainians will retain their dream of a free nation and keep fighting. What democracy wouldn’t? 
12/20 Support from the US and Europe will add some stiffening to Ukrainian resolve, but it is hard to see how it will be decisive in the next few days, which is a critical period. 5000 helmets are unlikely to have a significant (or any) impact.
13/20 However, a Lend Lease 2.0 program like that proposed by @peterbdora – if rapidly established – might come in handy in the coming days and weeks. It will certainly have an impact if Ukraine conducts an extended insurgency campaign against Russia.
14/20 On the potential Ukrainian insurgency issue, this excellent analysis from @eharding_DC explores different scenarios >>> www.csis.org/analysis/scenario-analysis-ukrainian-insurgency
15/20 Finally, Russia’s new theories of war for the 21st century are being tested. While I examine this in detail in #WarTransformed, it is clear that recent developments in their military theory are being severely tested by the realities of war.
16/20 With rapid, coordinated coup de main operations, destruction of enemy C2, the integration of indirect action across multiple domains, & mixing of conventional/unconventional warfare (+ threat of nuclear escalation), this is a huge test of new 21st century warfare theories.
17/20 Some good institutional sources on Russian theories of war for the 21st century include @CNA_org, @RANDCorporation, @ArmuUPress among others.
18/20 Other nations, including the US, China and the UK have also developed theories of success for 21st century military operations. Some however have not (you know who you are). Despite this, all will be watching Russian operations, and Ukrainian responses, very closely.
19/20 It goes without saying that the Russian hypotheses of success in 21st century warfare are yet to be proven.
20/20 Initial observations, part 2 ends. More tomorrow.
