Thread
People will call me crazy but...
LIFE IS A SIMULATION.
The future isn't happening to us–
we create it with every decision.
To control the future, you need to know the rules of the sim.
Here’s 4 principles of sim logic (made easy) to shape your mindset and solve life:
THREAD
LIFE IS A SIMULATION.
The future isn't happening to us–
we create it with every decision.
To control the future, you need to know the rules of the sim.
Here’s 4 principles of sim logic (made easy) to shape your mindset and solve life:
THREAD
1: PARETO PRINCIPLE
It’s a frequent phenomenon in complex systems… like human civilizations.
You may know this loosely as the 80/20 principle.
It suggests a small percentage at the top is afforded the majority of opportunity.
It’s a frequent phenomenon in complex systems… like human civilizations.
You may know this loosely as the 80/20 principle.
It suggests a small percentage at the top is afforded the majority of opportunity.
We can interpret this as privilege as a function of proven success.
Translation:
The more successful you are…
the better shot you have at more.
Kinda makes sense. But can lead to feelings of unfairness.
This happens when you think of success as a pie with finite pieces.
Translation:
The more successful you are…
the better shot you have at more.
Kinda makes sense. But can lead to feelings of unfairness.
This happens when you think of success as a pie with finite pieces.
But actually–
SUCCESS IS UNBOUNDED.
There are infinite ways to be successful.
Our problems are not keeping us from success.
Solving problems IS success.
To have a crack at big problems with big impact and big paydays–
you first need to solve your own.
SUCCESS IS UNBOUNDED.
There are infinite ways to be successful.
Our problems are not keeping us from success.
Solving problems IS success.
To have a crack at big problems with big impact and big paydays–
you first need to solve your own.
I’m not saying it’s easy BUT–
do this knowing solutions are progressive.
They bring more possibility and bigger fish to fry.
do this knowing solutions are progressive.
They bring more possibility and bigger fish to fry.
Leveraging this phenomenon is a matter of changing your attitude from
NOW THIS? to WHAT’S NEXT?
The world values powerful solvers.
To be one–
you need to reframe your perception of a problem.
NOW THIS? to WHAT’S NEXT?
The world values powerful solvers.
To be one–
you need to reframe your perception of a problem.
2: BLACK SWAN THEORY
A brilliant flaneurial observation by @nntaleb.
All assimilated methods are the result of a Black Swan.
It’s an inconceivable but highly impactful event of miniscule probability we brush off as normal after the fact.
A brilliant flaneurial observation by @nntaleb.
All assimilated methods are the result of a Black Swan.
It’s an inconceivable but highly impactful event of miniscule probability we brush off as normal after the fact.
@nntaleb 9/11. The rise of the internet. The pandemic.
All Black Swans.
Basically–
Something big happens, and we reorganize life as we know it.
Things are normal. Then it happens again.
They start in the blind spots of our overconfidence.
Sounds scary–
All Black Swans.
Basically–
Something big happens, and we reorganize life as we know it.
Things are normal. Then it happens again.
They start in the blind spots of our overconfidence.
Sounds scary–
@nntaleb but they can be positive too.
A positive Black Swan takes more time to create impact than a negative one.
So you better get started now.
That’s right.
A person can be a Black Swan.
These are the individuals among us that change the game.
A positive Black Swan takes more time to create impact than a negative one.
So you better get started now.
That’s right.
A person can be a Black Swan.
These are the individuals among us that change the game.
@nntaleb It’s the result of completely authentic thinking.
If you want to change the world–
or a given domain–
you need to solve a problem no one else is solving.
Identify a problem only you can solve.
Be a Black Swan.
If you want to change the world–
or a given domain–
you need to solve a problem no one else is solving.
Identify a problem only you can solve.
Be a Black Swan.
@nntaleb 3: BAYES' THEOREM
A concept in probability and statistics.
We’re Bayesian learners. Some of us better than others.
In Bayesian statistics…
probability is our degree of belief.
We can UPDATE this belief when faced with new info that suggests our prior belief was off.
A concept in probability and statistics.
We’re Bayesian learners. Some of us better than others.
In Bayesian statistics…
probability is our degree of belief.
We can UPDATE this belief when faced with new info that suggests our prior belief was off.
@nntaleb Simple enough.
But what happens when you’re confronted with evidence that you’re wrong?
Do you get defensive?
Do you self-destruct?
Do you double down on your old beliefs and keep going?
But what happens when you’re confronted with evidence that you’re wrong?
Do you get defensive?
Do you self-destruct?
Do you double down on your old beliefs and keep going?
@nntaleb Your success in the sim depends on your ability to update your beliefs unhindered by the pride of being right.
A rational agent accepts being wrong with dignity.
The agent knows the holes in their thinking are hidden leverage points to advance.
A rational agent accepts being wrong with dignity.
The agent knows the holes in their thinking are hidden leverage points to advance.
@nntaleb 4: GAME THEORY
The motion.
How you propel forward knowing what you know.
This is the branch of math that deals with strategic decision making.
You're navigating uncertainty. No outcome is guaranteed.
The motion.
How you propel forward knowing what you know.
This is the branch of math that deals with strategic decision making.
You're navigating uncertainty. No outcome is guaranteed.
@nntaleb Game Theory helps us OPTIMIZE our decisions to MAXIMIZE our outcomes in line with what we VALUE.
Nowadays it’s applied to just about every industry.
Do I think everyone needs to know the specific math?
No.
But it helps to have this type of intention in your decision making.
Nowadays it’s applied to just about every industry.
Do I think everyone needs to know the specific math?
No.
But it helps to have this type of intention in your decision making.
@nntaleb First–
you have to decide what you value.
For a lot of people, it’s the same stuff.
A few of the basics:
⬥ security and expansion of a household
⬥ expression through a specific problem
⬥ the self
you have to decide what you value.
For a lot of people, it’s the same stuff.
A few of the basics:
⬥ security and expansion of a household
⬥ expression through a specific problem
⬥ the self
@nntaleb The third one is funny:
sometimes that we value ourselves leads to decision making that devalues all three.
But game theory is the math of GRATITUDE.
How can you leverage what you have to give you the best shot at the future you want?
sometimes that we value ourselves leads to decision making that devalues all three.
But game theory is the math of GRATITUDE.
How can you leverage what you have to give you the best shot at the future you want?
@nntaleb It’s seeking the advantage. It’s finding the edge.
It’s not responding. It’s making moves.
Winning the game is a matter of aligning your decisions with what it is you TRULY value and MAXIMIZING.
It’s not responding. It’s making moves.
Winning the game is a matter of aligning your decisions with what it is you TRULY value and MAXIMIZING.
@nntaleb RECAP–
1: Pareto Principle
2: Black Swan Theory
3: Bayes’ Theorem
4: Game Theory
I’ve described 2 major 𝘣𝘦𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘪𝘰𝘳𝘴 of the sim.
And provided 2 thought models to navigate them.
1: Pareto Principle
2: Black Swan Theory
3: Bayes’ Theorem
4: Game Theory
I’ve described 2 major 𝘣𝘦𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘪𝘰𝘳𝘴 of the sim.
And provided 2 thought models to navigate them.
@nntaleb With the awareness that these things are navigable comes the energy to navigate them.
And by Pareto–
you will be rewarded more as you get better.
Think of privilege as the rate at which opportunity compounds.
Becoming a privileged solver starts with solving small problems.
And by Pareto–
you will be rewarded more as you get better.
Think of privilege as the rate at which opportunity compounds.
Becoming a privileged solver starts with solving small problems.
@nntaleb But when we gain enough privilege to understand how privilege works…
we need to pass that privilege to others.
REMEMBER–
∞ 𝗦𝗨𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 𝗜𝗦 𝗜𝗡𝗙𝗜𝗡𝗜𝗧𝗘 ∞
we need to pass that privilege to others.
REMEMBER–
∞ 𝗦𝗨𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 𝗜𝗦 𝗜𝗡𝗙𝗜𝗡𝗜𝗧𝗘 ∞
Thanks for reading!
For more threads on logic and rationality:
FOLLOW me @optimalcoco.
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For more threads on logic and rationality:
FOLLOW me @optimalcoco.
To help others learn:
RETWEET the first tweet in the thread!
