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Okay, Ontario. We need to talk about voter turnout. And we need to talk about the role of campaign strategy, constant polling, and horse race/infotainment journalism. Fewer than half of eligible voters showed up. And that is neither normal nor good enough. Spicy đŸ§” alert. /1
With a few ballots still left to count, the numbers look like they will settle in somewhere between 44 and 45%. That’s about four points lower than the previous all time low of 48%. That makes this the least participated-in election in Ontario history. /2
After several years of turmoil and lots of serious issues on the table, that number should seem odd to anyone paying attention. But it really isn’t when you look more closely. So what contributed to this? Let’s have a look at the most likely suspects. /3
1) Voter stress. People are stretched pretty thin these days. It’s been a tough two years and many people are in survival mode. That’s not good for engagement at the best of times. People are having a hard time keeping up with all sorts of things and so, politics
 nyah. /4
2) Terrible campaign strategy. When people are stressed and busy, you can’t wait for them to come to you. The two opposition parties mainly relied on Ford making mistakes and driving voters into their arms. Didn’t happen. He stayed out of voter’s sight lines and smiled a lot. /5
It’s hard to capitalize on your opponent’s mistakes when they don’t even show up to the rink. So the NDP and Liberals needed to adapt. And they didn’t. There was no urgency and no clear focus for the bubbling rage of those who were paying attention. /6
3) Terrible leaders. I’m not sure what the parties were thinking, but these were not the leaders for this or any other moment. They don’t inspire or relate well. They’re not magnetic. When people are stressed and busy (see 1) you need to be attention grabbing. In a good way. /7
4) Bad campaign strategy, part 2. Fighting over who’s the better strategic choice, constantly, and fibbing about it, constantly, is not the way to convince people you know what’s what. It makes you look petty and weasely and have nothing more to offer than your entitlement. /8
5) Polling and coverage of said polls. Election coverage has become a lazy affair. Public opinion firms looking for clout publish polls. Constantly. Media, strapped for time, resources and expertise, cover them. Daily. Result: a constant barrage of numbers and not much else. /9
That barrage does a bunch of things. If they are consistent (they were) it convinces people that the result is baked in. Why vote when you know it’s futile? See: learned helplessness. /10
The constant barrage of the same numbers also activates something in our heads called goal sufficiency. If we talk too much about the inevitable thing, our brain convinces us we have already done the inevitable thing. We are easily convinced. See: New Years resolutions. /11
6) Election coverage. It’s bad. Really bad. Much media coverage is all starting to sound like water cooler gossip. Sports, entertainment, life and death policy-making
 it all gets the rapid talking, wide-eyed, “Oh my god” eye roll treatment. It’s not good. It’s bad. /12
Politics isn’t sports. It’s not. Stop trying to make it sound like Sportsdesk. We don’t vote every four years to turn over a small piece of our personal autonomy to Connor McDavid (although, I suspect he’d be pretty good at stick handling issues). See? It’s annoying. Stop. /13
7) Analysis. We need people who actually know what they are talking about to lead the charge here. Not people who used to play for red or blue or orange (or still do, FFS
 staring hard at all media outlets 😠). It brings too much spin and not enough substance. /14
Bottom line: We need to take the whole thing more seriously and we need to build our institutions to support that effort, making it as easy as possible for people to get the information they need and to participate. It can’t just devolve into another amusing hobby. Please. /15
It’s time for a political makeover that amounts to more than softer colours for Andrea and laser eye surgery for Steve. But it’s hard to see how. The parties are a disaster and the media is just scrambling to outcompete beauty shots on the ‘gram. Maybe a game show
 /end
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