Thread by Major General Mick Ryan
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- Jun 7, 2022
- #Politics
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We are now past the 100 day mark since Russian began its invasion of #Ukraine. Today, an examination why strategic patience is needed in our support for Ukraine to defeat the Russian invasion. 1/24 
2/ Populations in democracies can be fickle. Opinions change often and attention spans can be short. But this is part of the to and fro, and open expression of views, that is so essential in democratic systems.
3/ One quality that is sometimes observed as lacking in democratic societies is patience. We have become used to rapid Amazon deliveries, 24/7 news cycles, and shorter, faster versions of old sports. This is hardly a new phenomenon.
4/ In his book The Vertigo Years, Philipp Blom wrote that “speed and exhilaration, anxiety and vertigo were recurrent themes of the years between 1900 and 1914, during which cities exploded in size and societies were transformed.”
5/ But, as shown in the long wars of the 20th century, the populations of democracies also have the capacity for strategic patience in the right circumstances. Those supporting Ukraine must commit to long term assistance.
6/ The leaders of democratic nations must explain to their citizens why this fight is important, why it will take time, and why we must nurture strategic patience if #Ukraine is to successfully throw back this invasion of its territory.
7/ Why is this strategic patience required in the nations that support Ukraine? www.smh.com.au/world/europe/humiliation-in-ukraine-is-the-price-russia-must-pay-for-its-brutality-202...
8/ First, the Ukrainians need time to integrate the massive flow of western weapon systems that have begun to cross their western borders. 
9/ Systems such as HiMARS, the M109 self-propelled howitzer and western anti-ship missiles all require operator training, digital integration and complex training for those who maintain and repair them. 
10/ And, all of these western weapon systems use standard NATO ammunition. While this is good in the longer term, it means in the short term that Ukraine must adapt its logistic systems away from Soviet era munitions to integrate NATO ammunition.
11/ Second, both sides are probably getting weary and we might expect an operational pause (not a ceasefire and not a stalemate) at some time in the coming weeks. The Ukrainians will need time to rebuild, retrain and re-strategize the next phase of this war. 
12/ In every long war, a tempo is established of constant maneuvering and preparations, punctuated by short periods of vicious combat. There are also pauses. We must have the patience to support the Ukrainians during the next operational pause.
13/ Third, strategic patience is needed because helping Ukraine win is the right thing to do. Not only do we have an obligation to a fellow democracy, but we must ensure the Ukrainians have agency in how they win.
14/ The advice of world leaders such as France’s President Macron has been less than helpful. If left to France, this war would be concluded in a way that perhaps involved Ukraine’s aspirations but definitely avoiding embarrassing the Russian leader.
15/ This strategically bankrupt, selfish and impatient French approach will only encourage future aggression. The Ukrainians have fought for the right to determine how this war ends.
16/ We must give them time to retake all their territory and inflict a military defeat on Russia. If that also humiliates Russia, that is the price they must pay for their brutality, destruction and unwarranted aggression. 
17/ Finally, strategic patience is required because it is a demonstration that the democracies of the world have the resilience, unity and perseverance to resist the coercion and aggression of all of this era’s techno-authoritarian regimes.
18/ The 21st century is seeing a return to the long term ideological competition that characterized the four decade long Cold War. We are engaged in a long term struggle to protect our sovereignty & preserve our values.
19/ We must nurture, and continuously demonstrate, the long term capacity and patience to confront and deter those who seek to coerce or attack us.
20/ Asking citizens to remain patient as their costs of living escalate, and their attention to the war declines, is a tough ask for governments. It will probably not be popular.
21/ But, as US scholar @EliotACohen has recently written, “the moment calls for intestinal fortitude, standing by the government and people of Ukraine.” www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/stakes-of-ukraine-winning-russia-war/631642/
22/ The fight in Ukraine is as much about the kind of world we wish to live in as it is about defeating Russian aggression.
23/ We owe the Ukrainians the time to win. End. 
24/ Thank you to @War_mapper @Blue_Sauron @MichaelH992 @uaweapons @IAPonomarenko whose images I used in this thread.
