Have been thinking about the market right now and wanted to get a few thoughts down. As always, consider this one man’s opinion who is probably not that much dumber or smarter than you.

1) Bear Markets - Long term, bear markets are good. It tests individuals, companies, and industries. Those that make it are hardened and disciplined in a healthy way, a way that is lasting.

Short term, there’s no shortage of pain to go around. It’s real, and can be extremely stressful. I feel for anyone or any project that was overexposed. All you can do is take lessons from it. As always, I’m here to talk if you need an ear.

The old adage, “buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy” comes to mind, but it’s so much harder to actually execute that strategy. So my silver lining to the bear is that the industry will come out of this market stronger and built for the long term.

2) ETH price — I’m an eth investor, not an eth trader. I have a long-term investment thesis. It has allowed me to not stress (too much) about the USD equivalent of my eth. I wasn't euphoric when it was at ATH either. But as an eth investor, I’m a buyer right now.

Will it go lower? No idea, but I feel high conviction that in 3-5-10 years, it will be multiple times higher than $1200 and outperform the stock market. Since I’m not a trader, I don’t try and time the bottom. Instead, I will do my best to dollar-cost-average as it drops.

I’m also extremely excited about the merge. ETH devs have said there is a very very high chance that the merge will happen in the next 2-5 months. They haven’t been this committal in the past.

The dynamics of the merge are compelling — it changes part of the buy/sell dynamic. Instead of needing to find buyers to gobble up the miner’s block-issued supply to keep the price from going down, now you will need to find sellers in order to prevent the price from going up.

Caveat - I don't fundamentally understand all the dynamics of the merge. But I understand it enough to find it compelling. DYOR, etc. A good podcast to listen to is the @BanklessHQ podcast from 5/11 w/ Hal Press, or can check his post out - @halp1120/1-the-only-other-large-assets-that-arguably-have-structural-demand-are-luna-and-bnb-cdcf8b2a8281' target='_blank'>medium.com/@halp1120/1-the-only-other-large-assets-that-arguably-have-structural-demand-are-luna-and-...

Note: even though I think eth is going to outperform the stock market over the next 5-10 years, I still have much more exposure to stocks than eth. Why? Because as I said at the start, I’m not that much smarter or dumber than anyone, and I want to be able to sleep at night.

3) NFTs - I’m crazy bullish on NFT technology and the special relationship that creators and their fans/collectors can have with them. And the unlocking of secondary markets. And so much more.

I believe it is transformational and the value that will be unlocked is impossible to measure. Now...Does this mean the price of the jpegs you own will go up? I hope so? I think so? But also not all of them? So what to do...

What this bear market has done for me is make me realize which things I own that I’m long on, and which I’m trading. If I feel panic about the floor price, then that NFT falls into the latter category and I need to be willing to let it go as soon as reasonably possible.

I hope that my NFT investments appreciate over time, but above all I want to have a collection that I love. One that I’m proud of. Because I know price movement is out of my control.

Final thought — Solve for you. Do I think you should hold/buy eth, get a job in web3, and increase position in NFTs you have long term conviction on? Yes yes and yes! But not if it doesn’t work for you. Personal circumstances can wipe any of what I said off the map.

Trust your well-informed gut on your moves and zoom out. Odds are you aren’t here for a quick trade. You're here because you believe strongly in the future of crypto and/or NFTs. If that’s the case, take a breath and look at the horizon.

It looks pretty damn beautiful to me.