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1/ Far too many voices from the far edges of the American political spectrum have begun to question whether our effort to defend Ukraine is worth the political and economic cost at home, which is why I am announcing my Plan for Strategic Endurance against Putin. 🇺🇦
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2/ We are currently in the first inning of a decades-long battle for liberal democracy and our values and we cannot turn our back on those fighting for freedom at the first sign of economic or political pain.
3/ Tomorrow's consumer price index report will likely come in hot, primarily driven by commodity shocks caused by Putin's illegal war. I strongly urge @POTUS and @SecYellen to utilize the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to ramp up and safeguard commodity production.
4/ Though Russia’s GDP may be small, they wield a large amount of economic power as they are rich in oil and gas, which powers the world. And by invading Ukraine they cut much of the world off from Ukrainian resources including wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower oil.
5/ Russia and Ukraine combine to export more than a quarter of the world’s fertilizer.
6/ These commodity shocks put much of the world at risk of energy blackouts, food shortages, and increase political instability. This can quickly result in countries falling out of our coalition against Russia.
7/ We are already seeing turmoil across the world and rather than using misguided tools such as export bans, which would have disastrous consequences for the global economy, utilizing the ESF allows the US to take advantage of its economic prowess for the good of the world.
8/ Next, we must solve our domestic energy problem. Congress must reduce the consumption of gasoline by reducing speed limits, incentivizing carpooling, temporarily reducing or eliminating fares for public transit, and more to reduce the demand for oil.
9/ By reducing demand, the price Americans pay at the pump would drop. Though these sacrifices would be inconvenient, Americans must be willing to take them on in order to help defeat Putin and to reduce the burden on families who are struggling to make ends meet.
10/ While oil demand reduction is necessary, it is not sufficient.
11/ President Biden should strike a deal to ease refinery capacity bottlenecks for short-term oil and gas production in exchange for the $500 billion in clean energy provisions to end our dependence on fossil fuels and cement our path to carbon neutrality by 2035.
12/ Finally, in addition to inflicting pain on Putin and his enablers, the success of our efforts banks on propping up allied countries and maintaining and expanding our coalition.
13/ To do that, Congress must empower the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to become constructive. OFAC is the office within the Treasury Department that is responsible for administering sanctions.
14/ Foreign policy expert @esaravalle notes, a constructive OFAC "can authorize funding to clear supply chain snarls; assist allies, neutrals and suffering populations; and ramp up investment."
15/ With the strategic deployment of America's political and economic capital, we can prop up our allies abroad and ease the global and domestic economic pain, achieving the goal of furthering our vision of an ethical, rules-based international order.
16/ Congress must act on this - the success of our mission depends on it.
17/ We are at a critical juncture. The global economy is likely headed toward a recession that may bring a pain we have not felt in decades: stagflation. Authoritarianism is on the rise across the world.
18/ The collective military, diplomatic, and economic might of the United States is needed more now than in decades to lead the world in this first inning of a multi-decade fight against authoritarianism.
19/ If we choose to abandon Ukraine over a few months of elevated gas prices and inflation then we will lose all credibility on the global stage.
20/ If we wave the white flag now, we are sending a clear message to autocrats and petrostates across the world: all it takes is a few months of pain at the pump and you can challenge the United States and liberal democracy freely.
21/ Prior generations of Americans made tough sacrifices to fight back against autocracies and authoritarianism from conscription to rationing, becoming the arsenal of democracy, to storming the beaches of Normandy. Our generation must prepare to step up now.
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Noah Smith @NoahSmith
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Jul 12, 2022
Good thread.