Thread by Alex Gurevich
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- Jul 21, 2022
- #Business #ProductManagement
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1) I'm still surprised by the lack of public discourse around the impacts of @apple's iOS 14 changes - all in the name of privacy - that are leading to massive adverse effects to SMBs and innovative companies everywhere. They might bear as much blame for a recession as inflation.
2) Online brands, small merchants, local SMBs, and the like have been able to leverage FB's micro targeting to compete and acquire customers in a capital efficient way, while growing and staying independent. The alternative is giving up economics/control and listing on @amazon.
3) With the recent changes, CAC's have doubled across the board, leading to massive drops (sometimes as much as 60%) in revenue for SMBs. @Meta did some analysis here. www.facebook.com/business/news/ios-14-apple-privacy-update-impacts-small-business-ads
4) This has massive adverse effects on the economy as a whole. SMB's are 44% of GDP and 64% rely on online targeting. A 50-60% revenue drop is massive for such a large swath of the economy. Could be leading to as much recessionary pressure as inflation and other macro factors.
5) But no one is talking about it because they are either afraid to take on @apple or they don't want to come off as "anti-privacy."
6) Amongst the various people I talk to in my network, there is a broad based expectation that @Apple will come out with a more robust advertising offering themselves, which in hindsight will make their actions look highly monopolistic all while waving the privacy flag.
7) .@Meta is no saint of a company, but we need to acknowledge the positives the micro targeting model has had for the SMB and innovation economy over the past decade plus.
8) .@Apple may be as much to blame for the current economic spiral as the headline grabbing factors. They shouldn't just get a free pass here and more scrutiny should be applied by the tech industry, government, and other stake holders.
“Overall, ATT can be expected to make ads substantially less relevant for consumers and to make them perform substantially less well for advertisers — except for ads delivered by Apple’s own personalized ads system.” From a less biased source…@HarvardBiz hbr.org/2021/04/apple-is-changing-how-digital-ads-work-are-advertisers-prepared