The bitcoin as methane reducing tech is a great story but here's why you won't get climate activists celebrating... 1/🧵

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Like carbon dioxide emissions, methane emissions have been increasing at a worrying rate.

In 2021, the IPCC estimated that methane is responsible for ~0.5 degree C warming and carbon dioxide ~0.75 degree C warming. With a neutralizing effect from sulfer dioxide of 0.5 degree C (air pollution that is masking the net warming effect)

news.cornell.edu/media-relations/tip-sheets/ipcc-points-methane-key-driver-warming

We've known for a while that methane was increasing but it wasn't clear the cause. Some thought maybe increase microbe activity because of higher amounts of lighter CH4 isotopes in atmosphere. But, OH radicals prefer the lighter CH4 isotopes.

Last year, a study showed that the new climate change normal of mega fires is pumping a lot more carbon monoxide into the atmosphere, which OH radicals have a higher preference for. So, methane is staying longer.
theconversation.com/methane-emissions-reach-new-highs-despite-pandemic-they-are-four-times-more-sensi...

Ultimately, all hydrocarbons in the atmosphere are oxidized into water vapor and CO2. Both have greenhouse gas effects. That means increased methane means increase carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
butane.chem.uiuc.edu/pshapley/Environmental/L14/3.html

Methane is an immediate problem, though. CH4 has ~84x heating effects than CO2 over a 20 year period and ~27x heating effects over a 100 year period. This effect decreases over time because of the OH radicals breaking down methane until it's 1xCO2.
www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials

Governments and the market have not been able to incentivize a reduction in methane emissions from landfills, agriculture, and the oil & gas industry. Until now, there hasn't been a way to get around political gridlock and market inefficiencies.

www.epa.gov/gmi/importance-methane

Bitcoin mining, as @DSBatten has found, can and is doing the job of capturing these emissions and with an expansion of the mining network, could hypothetically capture nearly half of our needed methane reductions to meet the Paris goals.
batcoinz.com/how-much-faster-must-bitcoin-grow-to-meet-half-the-unep-methane-reduction-target/

At this full-blown scale, we reduce methane emissions by converting to CO2 and we buy ourselves time. But climate activists won't be so happy.
1) This is a net CO2eq reduction based on 24x over 100 years potency over CH4. Those CO2 emissions will still be there after 100 years.

2) This is a band-aid on the deep societal problems that led to the current climate and ecological crises.

Do we need a solution like this given our existing socio-political hellscape? Yes. But...

...If we don't address the continued expansion of oil & gas we will always be putting more CO2 into the atmosphere as we race to beat fossil fuel expansion by expanding the bitcoin network. Fossil fuel expansion will mean more CO2 and more CH4.

This means from the perspective of the climate movement, which is that we must stop producing emission yesterday, we're buying ourselves time but not solving the root cause. This is only a partial win, we buy ourselves time, but it is still a bitter pill to swallow.

When talking with people who are demanding system change to end climate change, you must remember that your enthusaism over how bitcoin can help will not always be received warmly.

Still, we need bitcoin to do whatever it can to reduce emissions and the more people that understand this, the easier it will be. But we cannot sugar coat this message, because combusting methane alone will not save us.

Bitcoin is a necessary tool but it is not a panacea. In many ways, I believe that bitcoin's greatest gift to the climate movement is not its energy side effects, but rather its potential for societal and economic transformation.

So, when you are talking with people who have been working on, and fighting to end, climate change for longer than you have known about bitcoin methane mining, keep this in mind. You'll have a better chance of finding a middle ground rather than alienating necessary allies. /end

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Brandon Quittem @BrandonQuittem · Aug 24, 2022

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Great thread

Thread by jyn urso

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