A little map of the situation in Northern Luhansk after the rout of the russian invaders from Kharkiv Oblast.

Black 1 = the Oskil River frontline russia tries to establish.
Red 2s = the russian units retreating - those fleeing from Northern Kharkiv are on exterior lines and
1/n

therefore need much more time to reach the Oskil River, than the decimated russian units that fled from Izyum over the Oskil dam. However those russian units lost much of their equipment and vehicles, and all their ammo stores, so they are in no shape to defend a new
2/n

Oskil frontline.
Purple 3s = are the two bridges on the last railway in Northern Luhansk the russians control.
Until Ukraine liberated Kupiansk russian logistics moved from Valuyki to Kupiansk, Svatove and Rubizhne (cities in purple squares). Once Ukraine HIMARSes the two
3/n

bridges at Troitske over a sidearm of the Urazova River and at Starobilsk over the Aidar River (cities in red squares; Aidar bridge in the photo), then the massive amounts of ammo, supplies and vehicles russia has amassed near Belgorod have to make a wide detour to
4/n

Rostov-on-Don before they arrive in Luhansk.
Luckily both bridges are in M142 HIMARS range (Yellow circles) and will be gone in a few days.

If Ukraine chooses to liberate Northern Luhansk now, then speedy advances from Kupiansk over the Oskil or North from Lyman (Blue 4s)
5/n

will crush russian hopes of establishing a new frontline on the Oskil.
If Ukraine crosses the Oskil, then the next geographic feature suited for a new russian frontline is the Aidar River (Grey 5), but that is so close to the russian border, that russia would likely give up
6/n

all of Northern Luhansk and retreat South of the Siverskyi Donets... which is where russia was before 24 February. In short russia would lose every bit of Luhansk occupied at massive cost since the start of the full invasion this year.

I believe Ukraine will cross the
7/n

Oskil, because it's an easy and quick victory... even though I still believe that the war-deciding battle against the russian army will be fought to the South of Zaporizhzhia: between Melitopol, Perekop and Mariupol.
And that the war will be over once Ukraine attacks East
8/n

from Vuhledar and envelopes Donetsk city from the South.

This war isn't over yet... but from this week russia isn't capable to go on the offensive... Ukraine can and will now strike where and when it wishes, and russian forces will be routed every time.

9/end