Thread by Rob Lennon 🗯
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- Aug 27, 2022
- #ArtificialIntelligence
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Hot take: Everyone's missing the big picture on AI writing.
I've glimpsed the future of what's really going to happen:
I've glimpsed the future of what's really going to happen:
Why listen to me?
• Content marketing/writing for 14+ years
• Self-published 45 titles on Amazon
• Early AI user/researcher (since 2017)
• Spent 500+ hours testing AI writing tools
Here's my prediction of our AI future that no one's talking about.
• Content marketing/writing for 14+ years
• Self-published 45 titles on Amazon
• Early AI user/researcher (since 2017)
• Spent 500+ hours testing AI writing tools
Here's my prediction of our AI future that no one's talking about.
In case you haven't tried the tech:
Current AI technology generates writing that passes as human-written.
Here are two examples.
I wrote a prompt, and then the green is the portion written by an AI called text-davinci-002 in the GPT-3 series.
Current AI technology generates writing that passes as human-written.
Here are two examples.
I wrote a prompt, and then the green is the portion written by an AI called text-davinci-002 in the GPT-3 series.
I showed you the images above as evidence because:
For basic, fact-based articles, AI already writes better than most inexpensive writers do.
In my last role, I spent $1000+/week on freelancers. I've seen a lot.
Especially with a couple of minutes of editing, AI does well.
For basic, fact-based articles, AI already writes better than most inexpensive writers do.
In my last role, I spent $1000+/week on freelancers. I've seen a lot.
Especially with a couple of minutes of editing, AI does well.
🔸 Elimination of Entry Level Writing Jobs
A decent writer who is good with AI can produce 5-10x as much basic content as a low-end writer and at equal or better quality.
Entry-level freelance writing jobs will be decimated w/in 5 years and replaced by AI wranglers.
So sorry.
A decent writer who is good with AI can produce 5-10x as much basic content as a low-end writer and at equal or better quality.
Entry-level freelance writing jobs will be decimated w/in 5 years and replaced by AI wranglers.
So sorry.
🔸 Models Trained to Write Like You
Writing models are getting trained on specific people's content.
Someone already published one trained on Shaan Puri as a joke.
(It's pretty good, actually.)
Personal style will become impossible to protect, and eventually, public domain.
Writing models are getting trained on specific people's content.
Someone already published one trained on Shaan Puri as a joke.
(It's pretty good, actually.)
Personal style will become impossible to protect, and eventually, public domain.
🔸 Lack of Original Ideas
To oversimplify how a language prediction model works: AI tries to predict the next word.
These models write what is expected to come next.
Expected = average
New insights are still rare.
(AI disagrees, but it's acting in its own interest.)
To oversimplify how a language prediction model works: AI tries to predict the next word.
These models write what is expected to come next.
Expected = average
New insights are still rare.
(AI disagrees, but it's acting in its own interest.)
🔸 Novel Thinking Becomes a Commodity
If an AI comes up with new insight, it’s often an accident, not an epiphany.
Novel thinking becomes an even more valuable commodity than it already is.
Soon, there will be marketplaces to buy uncommon non-AI ideas.
(Maybe I'll start one.)
If an AI comes up with new insight, it’s often an accident, not an epiphany.
Novel thinking becomes an even more valuable commodity than it already is.
Soon, there will be marketplaces to buy uncommon non-AI ideas.
(Maybe I'll start one.)
🔸 No Path to Upskill
A chain reaction occurs.
Fewer entry-level business writing jobs are available.
Years go by.
Fewer writers getting better at their craft.
Fewer writers writing about writing.
Thus begins the gap.
A chain reaction occurs.
Fewer entry-level business writing jobs are available.
Years go by.
Fewer writers getting better at their craft.
Fewer writers writing about writing.
Thus begins the gap.
🔸 Massive Shortage of Expert Writers
Most people think AI writing will lead to a SURPLUS of writers, not a SHORTAGE.
But — Over a short period (15 years?) the gap widens.
Masterful writers leave the job pool, and not enough new people are there to step up.
Most people think AI writing will lead to a SURPLUS of writers, not a SHORTAGE.
But — Over a short period (15 years?) the gap widens.
Masterful writers leave the job pool, and not enough new people are there to step up.
Instead of being replaced with new master writers, AI-enabled writers take their places.
"Genius" copywriters start to get paid egregious sums of money.
Otherwise, a new puppet master is required, and this puppet master is a generalist writer with a skill called “prompt craft”.
"Genius" copywriters start to get paid egregious sums of money.
Otherwise, a new puppet master is required, and this puppet master is a generalist writer with a skill called “prompt craft”.
🔸 Prompt Engineering Becomes an Industry
Prompt craft is the art of knowing how to write a prompt to get optimal results from an AI.
The best prompts are concise while giving the AI context to understand the desired outcome.
Ironically, good prompts = good writing.
Prompt craft is the art of knowing how to write a prompt to get optimal results from an AI.
The best prompts are concise while giving the AI context to understand the desired outcome.
Ironically, good prompts = good writing.
🔸 AI Content Gets AI-Summarized
Just as AI will accelerate content production, it will also deflate it.
We’ll see a rise in tools that summarize long-form content into shorter form.
The proliferation of summaries leads to a general shallowing of expertise across our species.
Just as AI will accelerate content production, it will also deflate it.
We’ll see a rise in tools that summarize long-form content into shorter form.
The proliferation of summaries leads to a general shallowing of expertise across our species.
🔸 Text-Based Social Implodes
Just as spam took over email, a combination of AI-powered bots and human+AI content will flood text-based social networks.
It becomes impossible to differentiate what's human-generated and what isn't.
“Authentic” video apps like TikTok surge.
Just as spam took over email, a combination of AI-powered bots and human+AI content will flood text-based social networks.
It becomes impossible to differentiate what's human-generated and what isn't.
“Authentic” video apps like TikTok surge.
🔸 Verified Human
A closed social network emerges with strict human verification.
AI countermeasures maintain the quality of the community.
Verified human becomes massively popular.
(Then this company spins its anti-AI tech into a billion-dollar industry like AWS.)
A closed social network emerges with strict human verification.
AI countermeasures maintain the quality of the community.
Verified human becomes massively popular.
(Then this company spins its anti-AI tech into a billion-dollar industry like AWS.)
This is the future I've seen.
Yes, some books will be written with the help of robots.
But what's more important is the societal shift driven by economic factors that AI creates.
Get ready.
Yes, some books will be written with the help of robots.
But what's more important is the societal shift driven by economic factors that AI creates.
Get ready.
A lot of this happens in less than 10 years.
It may sound like a dystopian future, but it’s just the future.
We survived pop-up ads. We (mostly) dealt with spam emails.
Some things will be forced to change, but we’ll find a path forward.
It may sound like a dystopian future, but it’s just the future.
We survived pop-up ads. We (mostly) dealt with spam emails.
Some things will be forced to change, but we’ll find a path forward.
That's a wrap.
Follow me @thatroblennon for more original thinking about writing, online business, and a winning mindset.
Like/RT the first tweet to spread news of the future:
Follow me @thatroblennon for more original thinking about writing, online business, and a winning mindset.
Like/RT the first tweet to spread news of the future:
Oh, one last thing.
If that was a bit dystopian for you, I’ve added a palette cleanser before you head back into the world:
If that was a bit dystopian for you, I’ve added a palette cleanser before you head back into the world:
