The Kremlin is aware of growing frustration among military and mobilized families. It is attempting to relieve some of this pressure in a typical managed way, by meeting with some families and preferred groups, while excluding others. (/1)

Since mobilization was declared, there is growing agitation among family and draftees, as some make complaints and videos. The old ways (bribes, hiding, going to the conflict zone to get their soldier) are coming back too. Not in large numbers, but the trend is going up (/2)

The Kremlin, I assume, is scared of unauthorized demonstrations like an “Immortal Regiment” of KIA from the war, or a large protest against service conditions. Imagine if those families came forward tighter—the imagery/ power of collective bargaining.Yet, doesn’t work that way…

..some Russian families are afraid of losing death benefits or rehabilitation benefits, their MOD-owned apartments or mortgage assistance. Some families accept what has happened as part of war. Some don’t want to make trouble for themselves. Many support the war. (/4)

Also, atomization in Russian society is a phenomenon, and it certainly is with respect to this war, pre-mobilization. Russian NGOs have observed that even relations between parents and their professional enlisted sons are impacted and different from 20 years ago. (/5)

Individual actions may be starting to change into small group efforts, as more families are exposed. Complaints are occurring in many cities across Russia and from soldiers within Ukraine, often directed at governors and local commanders. (/6)

For now the Kremlin is trying to suppress certain news (including forecasting the war 👇), giving out medals, changing laws to try to do better at paying benefits, and offering to meet with (preferred?) families to take the edge off the frustration (/7)

As field conditions worsen from winter, combat, and local commanders, so will complaints continue. Along with losses + munitions challenges, personnel issues are another reason why Russian forces likely need defensive positions/lines/trenches, to hunker down asap. (/8)

When the videos, formal complaints, and leaving the country don’t work anymore, where will this frustration go next? Especially if another replacement mobilization wave is called in 2023? The Kremlin is most likely thinking about these issues now. (/9)

These calls for help are not explicitly or even implicitly anti-war, about stopping the war, conduct of the war, or impact on Ukrainian civilians, but about service conditions. Yet, they are a critique of the government and therefore on the Kremlin’s radar (/end)

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Kremlin created a new patriotic mothers group (one that is controlled) or co-opted an organization. They’ve been pressuring the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers for years. Link to meeting with mothers below (/end) www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2022/11/22/951447-putin-provedet-vstrechu-s-materyami-voennih