Thread by Madi Kapparov

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There are no separatists in the Donbas. The War in Donbas was an elaborate russian ploy. Some global media sources keep referencing the so-called DPR and LPR patched russian troops as "pro-russian separatists." In this thread, I aim to explain why it is russian propaganda. 1/
russian aggression against Ukraine could be broadly broken down into three phases:
1. Hybrid warfare phase, 2009-Feb. 20 2014
2. "Plausible" deniability invasion, Feb. 20 2014-Feb. 24 2022
3. Full-scale invasion, Feb. 24, 2022-ongoing 2/
The hybrid warfare phase commenced in 2009. It did not involve any conventional warfare means. Instead, russia utilized economic blackmail, cyber warfare, psy ops, and info warfare (propaganda) against Ukraine. 3/
Here's an excerpt from a report by the 21st Century Center for Global Studies:
"...at the end of 2005, the 'Donetsk Republic' project emerged, as a successor of the Donetsk-Kryvyi Rih Soviet Republic of 1918. The project was unsuccessful, and the organization was banned... 4/
"in Ukraine, but it continued its underground operations with comprehensive support from russia. It was fully reactivated at the beginning of 2009. The 2009 russia-Ukraine gas dispute had far-reaching goals [russia limited natural gas deliveries to Ukraine]... 5/
"It was supposed to spark an internal political conflict in Ukraine along the East-West line. The idea was that in the event of a complete cessation of gas supplies (for domestic consumption + transit to the EU), the authorities in Ukraine will not be able to ensure the... 6/
"supply of gas from the main underground gas stores facilities located in the west of the country to the main industrial centers in the east, which would be left without heat. Thus, it was supposed to provoke, according to the plan of russian strategists, 'a social... 7/
"unrest in the east and south of Ukraine.' In 2009, the russian Foundation for Strategic Culture worked out the so-called 'semi-hard' scenario, which included an emergency intervention of russian military contingents with the "interim government" Ukraine,... 8/
"the dynamic deployment of local governments in the occupied territories based on the 'support forces' prepared in advance - marginal groups, critical of the authorities in Kyiv, the creation of 'independent quasi-state entities.' It is no coincidence that on... 9/
"January 12, 2009, publications appeared in the russian media on the topic of 'reviewing borders' in the CIS and statements by russian politicians: 'Deputy of the State Duma of the russian federation Konstantin Zatulin does not exclude that russia' at the right time... 10/
"will give a sign 'to the southeastern regions of Ukraine to join russia.' Probably, the results of the joint meeting of the Security Council and the State Council of the russian federation on December 25, 2008, where the emphasis was placed on the... 11/
"special role of interregional relations within the CIS, the integration core of which is the CSTO and the EAEU, became the basis for such statements."

I recommend you read the report in full here: geostrategy.org.ua/en/analysis/research/gibresiya-putina-nevoienni-aspekti-viyn-novogo-pokolinnya/zav...

Photo: members of the "Donetsk Republic," Aug. 2009 12/
The russian plan was to destabilize Ukraine's political system sufficiently for the country to abandon its EU membership aspirations and join the Eurasian Economic Union, russia's tool for economic extortion and political influence. 13/
Through instability and political machinations, a pro-russian dictator was supposed to take over in Ukraine effectively turning the country into another Belarus. Yanukovych was supposed to be that pro-russian dictator, who "won" the elections in 2010 with russia's assistance. 14/
Despite having pro-russian Yanukovich as president of Ukraine, russia started preparing contingency plans to occupy parts or all of Ukraine as early as summer 2013. In September of 2013 russian and Belarus conducted joint military exercises in the Kaliningrad Oblast,... 15/
western russia, and Belarus simulating an invasion into an unspecified neighboring country with the aim to "protect an oppressed russian-speaking population." (web.archive.org/web/20220718194339/https://www.dw.com/ru/%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%BD%D...). 16/
The same year russian far-right monarchist and businessman Konstantin Malofeyev drafted a plan carving up Ukraine that reached putin's desk (nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/opublikovan-plan-ottorzheniya-rossiey-ryada-territoriy-ukrainy-polnyy-tek...). But most importantly in 2016 Ukrainian Cyberalliance, a hacktivist group, gained access to Surkov's emails. 17/
Vladislav Surkov, an éminence grise and one of the Kremlin's chief ideologists, was a key architect behind the occupation of Crimea and the War in Donbas. The email hack spans a period between September 2013 and November 2014. Recall that the War in Donbas started in April. 18/
Surkov's pre-April email hacks include a 22-page document outlining a plan to destabilize Ukraine using ethnic russian nationalists and pro-russian figures financed by the Kremlin. The hacks also include a description of a "novorossiya" project. foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/25/hacked-putin-aides-emails-detail-alleged-plot-to-destabilize-kiev-surkov... 19/
According to the "novorossiya" project, russia planned to create a landbridge between russia and Crimea, not yet occupied, and Transnistria in Moldova. The plan included the creation of a number of quasi-states in Southern and Eastern Ukraine. As we now know the plan failed. 20/
The start of the Euromaidan protests in November 2013 lasting till February 23, 2014, signaled the russians that the puppet dictator plan they had for Ukraine was not going to work. The contingency plans and the assets russia planted in Ukraine since 2009 were activated. 21/
Taking advantage of the confusion amidst the Revolution of Dignity, the russians enter Crimea and oust the legitimate Ukrainian authorities there. The "little green men" expression is born -- the russian troops use no identifying insignia but were clothed in russian camo. 22/
It is likely that the Yanukovych-appointed SBU officers either assisted or at the very least did not interfere with the russian occupation of Crimea.
Source 1: news.liga.net/politics/news/nalivaychenko_yanukovich_vernul_v_krym_fsb_i_naznachil_shpionov_v_sbu
Source 2: prm.ua/ru/komandirovki-agenta-sluzhbyi-vneshney-razvedki-rf-v-sbu-otkryilis-skandalnyie-faktyi-biogra... 23/
Concurrently with the occupation of Crimea, the GRU started a massive disinformation campaign (www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/inside-a-russian-disinformation-campaign-in-ukraine-in...). russian propaganda claimed that the revolution in Ukraine was a "coup" by Ukrainian "nationalists, fascists, and nazis" financed by the West. 24/
Now Donbas.
Some sociological surveys first. The chart below shows that the percentage of the Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) population wishing to join russia was far from the majority. Note that ru propaganda was hard at work there for at least 5 years by that point. 25/
The results above are corroborated by another survey conducted roughly in the same period.
Source 1: www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=236&page=1&y=2014&m=3
Source 2: dif.org.ua/article/chi-vlastivi-ukraintsyam-nastroi-separatizmu 26/
The russians attempted to conduct a repeat of the Crimean scenario in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. However, the plan there failed as there was no russian military presence there (yet). Recall, that the russians leased the Sevastopol Naval Base for their Black Sea fleet. 27/
The attempts in the Donbas also failed due to an overwhelming pro-Ukrainian sentiment. Thousands of Ukrainians rallied in Donetsk throughout March and April of 2014 in opposition to the provocations conducted by the russian intelligence services. blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/ryabchin/5aa7f2b953042/ 28/
A joint operation by the FSB and the GRU saw that russian "titushky" or provocateurs, frequently with criminal past, were brought into the Donbas and clashed with the Ukrainian patriots and turned the unity rallies into a bloody affair. Their aim was to scare people. 29/
An active part in the "pro-russian protests" in the Donbas was taken by the members of the aforementioned russian asset organization, "Donetsk Republic," and members of the now-banned ethnic russian Bloc, who were trained in ru for this very purpose (resource.history.org.ua/item/0014495). 30/
The simultaneous "pro-russian protests" in 11 Ukrainian cities were coordinated by moscow and utilized the local criminal element, hired or blackmailed into collaboration, and the russian "tourists," frequently of the ultra-rightwing kind. 31/
N.B. Members of the russian Imperial Movement (RIM) took part in the occupation of Crimea and the events leading up to the War in Donbas. RIM is recognized as a terrorist organization by the US and Canada. More on them here:

32/
Surkov's email hacks also reveal the financial trail and the command chain during the so-called "russian spring," an irredentist project the russians started implementing in earnest in 2014. Source: www.liga.net/politics/opinion/istorii-spetsslujb-kak-rossiyane-delali-russkuyu-vesnu-v-ukraine 33/
"We must take under control all the administrative buildings... By tomorrow morning complete the task so that Oblast level authorities could face the facts," - wrote Glazyev, a russian citizen and an advisor to the russian president, to one of the russian agents in Ukraine. 34/
In a daily press briefing on April 7, 2014, after the meeting between Lavrov and Kerry, Psaki stated: "...the Secretary noted the Ukrainian Government’s assertion that this appeared to be a carefully orchestrated campaign with russian support." 2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2014/04/224477.htm 35/
On April 12, 2014, the russian invasion of Ukraine begins. On that day the russian forces under the command of Strelkov-Girkin, an FSB colonel, cross the border into Ukraine from russia and capture Sloviansk. 36/ www.radiosvoboda.org/a/russian-spring-2020-possible/31203721.html
The legitimate authorities in Kyiv launched a counter-terrorism operation two days later. As the russian troops fought without a banner, the Ukrainian government labeled the russian forces as terrorists (a fitting label, IMHO). 37/
I will not go over the chronology of the war. So far in this thread, you've seen the elaborate preparations by russians that took years. I will provide you direct evidence with links showing DIRECT russian involvement in the War in Donbas. 38/
Perhaps the most extensive investigation was conducted by @InformNapalm. They have a full list of all the ru units that were identified to be fighting in Eastern Ukraine pre-02.24 along with the incidents they were involved in:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16mV_B2MwLVCVeR6M5PqZhXMpG764TD2n3dbj461331k/edit
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16mV_B2MwLVCVeR6M5PqZhXMpG764TD2n3dbj461331k/edit 39/
The list includes 83 russian military units engaged in 193 separate incidents. The list contains links with detailed explanations of how the identification was conducted. Here is a visual representation of the scale of russian involvement -- units came from all over russia: 40/
ru troops were even captured as POWs by the Ukrainians as early as August 2014. Here is a video interview with captured VDV troops explaining their "journey" into Ukraine (spoiler alert: they were told they were going for military drills, not war): www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CYvm-HnSpg&ab_channel=hromadske 41/
In 2014 RBC, a russian outlet, conducted its own investigation following reports of russian troops ending up dead or in Ukrainian captivity: www.rbc.ru/politics/02/10/2014/542c0dcfcbb20f5d06c1d87a. The official response from the ru MOD was that the ru troops went to Ukraine as volunteers while on leave. 42/
The russians also employed a large number of ultra-rightwing volunteers and organizations from russia to fight in the War in Donbas, including DShRG Rusich, russian Imperial Movement, russian National Unity, russian Cossacks, etc.

43/
Some of those russian military organizations were forged in Ukraine. The infamous Wagner Group was organized in 2014 to allow for plausible deniability of the russian presence in Eastern Ukraine. Wagner was created as an amalgamation of GRU/VDV Spetsnaz and russian Neo-Nazis. 44/
There are also numerous reports of ru military equipment extensively used in the War in Donbas, e.g. TOS-1 Buratino not in Ukrainian service www.bbc.com/russian/international/2015/10/151002_osce_ukraine_buratino, MLRS systems used exclusively by ru: focus.ua/voennye-novosti/497573-obse-zafiksirovali-u-okkupantov-rszo-grad-k-sostoyashchie-na-vooruzhe..., T-72B3 exclusive to ru: www.bbc.com/ukrainian/press-review-49395260 45/
The russians were also shelling Ukraine from russia before February 24, 2022 as confirmed by an investigation conducted by the International Partnership for Human Rights: iphronline.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Joint-report-on-cross-border-shelling-June-2016.pdf 46/
The evidence is seemingly endless, but for conciseness, it is best to end with the most recent ruling on the shoot-down of MH17. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63637625 47/
On November 17, the court in Hague found Igor Girkin, an FSB colonel, Sergey Dubinsky, a senior GRU officer, and Leonid Kharchenko, a russian agent, guilty of killing 298 people aboard flight MH17. This inspires hope that justice will be served for all. 48/48
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