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A total victory by Ukraine is critical. The russian invasion of Ukraine has global implications. It is not a "local conflict."
The outcome of the war might not change the world order but it will set the tone for international relations and domestic politics in many countries. 1/
The outcome of the war might not change the world order but it will set the tone for international relations and domestic politics in many countries. 1/
Should russia be given any concessions, including Crimea, it would be perceived by the russians as a "partial" victory. We've seen them do it before. For instance, in the Winter War, the USSR aimed to take all of Finland. 2/
The russians had to settle for the cessation of a few Finnish territories and to this day the russians teach in their schools a revised version of the war - the Finnish people were "oppressed" so the red army had to "save" them, a few territories were gained, and the USSR won. 3/
Crimea is at the center of the contemporary russian imperial myth. Should they keep it, they'll spin it as a victory. Remember, the war did not start on February 24, 2022. The war started in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea; it was the Sudetenland moment of the 21st century. 4/
IMPLICATION 1: if the russians achieve a "partial" victory there can be no fundamental changes in russia.
russia's foreign policy would remain unchanged no matter who sits in the kremlin. None of russia's neighbors who are not under the NATO umbrella would be safe. 5/
russia's foreign policy would remain unchanged no matter who sits in the kremlin. None of russia's neighbors who are not under the NATO umbrella would be safe. 5/
IMPLICATION 2: a "partial" russian victory would give fuel to the flare of the global fascist movement.
There are already many Mussolinis, Petains, and Lindberghs (controversial, I know) in the making. 6/
There are already many Mussolinis, Petains, and Lindberghs (controversial, I know) in the making. 6/
The russians would sell any concessions made to them as a victory not only domestically, but also abroad through their vast network of agents representing their interests. The network dates back to the soviet days. 7/ www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-43577958
The russians do not shy away from using "active measures" to influence western democracies, be it through campaign financing, social media sentiment manipulations, migrant crises, or applying direct pressure through kompromat and corruption. 8/ www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/security-insights/active-measures-russias-covert-geopolitical-...
For instance, the kremlin meddled in the Scottish Independence referendum of 2014 (www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/20/russia-report-kremlin-tried-meddle-scottish-independence-vote...). The russians also interfered in the 2016 US presidential elections. I would not find it surprising if there was russian influence behind the January 6 events. 9/
russia already has an expansive network working with far-right groups in the West.
carnegieendowment.org/2020/02/27/with-friends-like-these-kremlin-s-far-right-and-populist-connections...
www.jstor.org/stable/48600543?seq=1 10/
carnegieendowment.org/2020/02/27/with-friends-like-these-kremlin-s-far-right-and-populist-connections...
www.jstor.org/stable/48600543?seq=1 10/
Should russia achieve even a "partial" victory and these ultra-rightwing connections remain, Western democracies would be in greater danger of destabilization.
worldview.stratfor.com/article/russia-s-role-stoking-right-wing-extremism-west 11/
worldview.stratfor.com/article/russia-s-role-stoking-right-wing-extremism-west 11/
IMPLICATION 3: a "partial" russian victory would normalize the politics of fear and hate globally.
On the one hand, any concession given to russia would lead to further entrenchment of ethnofascism in russia creating a nuclear-armed boogeyman. 12/
On the one hand, any concession given to russia would lead to further entrenchment of ethnofascism in russia creating a nuclear-armed boogeyman. 12/
And on another, a "partial" russian victory would signal to the rest of the world that "might makes right," disestablishing the norms of international law, and obsoleting existing international agreements.
Both of these factors create a global environment full of uncertainty. 13/
Both of these factors create a global environment full of uncertainty. 13/
Uncertainty is not the same as risk. With risk, the ultimate outcome is unknown with a known probability distribution, making planning and scenario analyses possible. With uncertainty, neither the outcome nor the probability distribution is known. And this creates fear. 14/
Uncertainty by itself has wider implications for the global economy - making economic forecasts becomes a thankless job, as geopolitics becomes a defining factor and not vice versa. We are already observing the USD index reaching new heights in recent years. 15/ 
The US markets are the usual safe haven in times of crisis or explosive market growth in the US - note the prior spikes around the dot-com bubble/the September 11 attacks and the height of the Cold War. 16/
“What’s amazing is that this dollar strength is happening even as other major central banks are also tightening monetary policy at a historically hawkish pace... If there was ever a time to be on the lookout for something to break, this would be it.” 17/ www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-26/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-dollar-surge-tends-to-end-in-...
An uncertain economic future and fear of the unknown make an average voter in a democracy more receptive to populism. Europe has already been experiencing a surge in populism over the past few years. With any concessions to russia it'll only get worse. 18/
www.chathamhouse.org/2021/12/political-economy-populism-europe
www.chathamhouse.org/2021/12/political-economy-populism-europe
Pre-2014 the world responded decisively to an outright war of conquest reestablishing the rule of law -- Saddam's Iraq was expelled from Kuwait in the Gulf War. This time, the West is not directly involved despite the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. 19/
The non-involvement by the West is usually explained away by non-ratification of the agreement, etc. However, the primary reason is russia's nuclear arsenal. However, Ukraine is not requesting western boots on the ground, only an adequate level of support. 20/
N.B.: do not fear the nukes. The West is already taking the necessary steps to make it abundantly clear to russia that the use of nuclear arms would entail a catastrophic cost, which is exactly what needs to be done from a game theoretic perspective. 21/
IMPLICATION 4: any concessions to russia in its invasion of Ukraine are likely to result in global nuclear proliferation.
Stemming from the normalization of international law violation and fear, many countries would look to more "intimate" security arrangements. 22/
Stemming from the normalization of international law violation and fear, many countries would look to more "intimate" security arrangements. 22/
Potential nuclear proliferation would feed into implication 3 creating a positive feedback loop of fear and hate escalation, into implication 2 - giving ground to the global rise of fascism through populism and russian support, and implication 1 - giving russia what it wants. 23/
I hope now you understand why some say that it is cheaper to support Ukraine now and help them achieve a total victory, than yield to any russian demands and suffer the costly consequences. It might not be mayhem, but it will get ugly if russia is appeased. 24/24
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