Putin launched a genocidal war convinced he’d get away with it. This was a rational belief. For 20 years he saw a Western establishment that was timid, accommodating, self-censoring, and tolerant of deeds even the Soviet Union had never done. A very few of the highlights:

1. The century’s first genocide in Chechnya. Terrible, well-documented war crimes that Russians acknowledge is official policy of “bespredel”. Official Western response: next to none; pretend Chechnya is part of “the war on terror”.

2. Europe’s first use of a “dirty” bomb - murder of Litvinenko with polonium-210 in 2006. Meant to be a visible, spectacular act. Response: gentle slap on the wrist. Four Russian “diplomats” expelled. Home Sec. Theresa May refuses Maria Litvinenko’s request for investigation.

3. Crippling cyber attacks against Estonia in 2007. Orchestrated by the Kremlin and carried out by state-sponsored, “private” outfits. Response: Estonia fortified itself against future attacks but no response or retaliation by NATO.

4. String of assassinations of Russians and non-Russians associated with Berezovsky in Britain. At least 14 highly suspicious cases of sudden death. Response: suppression, complicity. Pressured by a government eager to keep close to Putin, police declare none of them suspicious.

MI5 and MI6 drastically downsized their organized crime/Russia intelligence desks, respectively, pouring all on jihadism and the Middle East. Those who remained worried that court cases would be unsuccessful as sensitive intelligence could not be shared openly.

But there was another component used to justify inaction: fear that “provoking” Putin would lead to crippling cyber attacks, activation of sleeper agents or even armed conflict. Defense chiefs kept telling Whitehall that Russia had a massive military superiority over Britain.

5. Europe’s first attack by a state on another sovereign state since WW2: aggression against Georgia in 2008 a few months after the Bucharest Summit where NATO opened the door to Georgia’s MAP. Response: essentially none other than a feeble NATO statement.

6. Europe’s first illegal occupation and seizure of another state’s territory since WW2: illegal occupation in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and illegal annexation of Crimea, 2014. Response: slow-rolling sanctions of individuals and business as usual.

7. Europe’s first chemical warfare attack since WW2: attempted assassinations of a Bulgarian arms dealer supplying Ukraine in 2015 and the Skripals in 2018. Response: spies under diplomatic cover expelled but business as usual.

Every time Putin sees his aggression met with fear, timidity, restraint and phone calls, he gets rewarded. The “asymmetry” in his “asymmetric warfare” came from the delusion that trade and talk therapy would turn this rogue state into a responsible partner.

Just to clarify, Putin’s belief in impunity was rational based on the two decades of appeasement, the “long-table” attempts at talk therapy last year and the like but his overall judgement was catastrophically poor.

8. Downing of MH17, July 17, 2014, 298 fatalities. Shot down by personnel from 53rd Air Brigade (Kursk) using a Buk missile. The Buk was moved to Ukraine on orders of Gen. Kartapolov, now a TV pundit who recently threatened to “finish off” Russia’s enemies.