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My crypto predictions for 2023. Mostly about Eth related tech, just for fun. Let's see if next year is as full of surprises as this year was.
1) Withdrawals will ship before end of March, with peak FUD the day of the upgrade, but back to a larger deposit queue than withdrawal queue two months later.
2) The Beaconchain will continue to grow and have 690,000 validators by the end of the year. With exchanges and activated old ICO treasuries making up most of the new validators.
data: beaconcha.in/charts/validators
data: beaconcha.in/charts/validators
3) EVM Object Format (EOF) ships, but adoption by most alt L1s, L2s and tooling will take 6+ months.
4) ZK-rollups will not be post-EOF EVM-equivalent at EthCC, a year after their initial announcements. Due to upstream EVM changes like EOF, and incomplete rewrites/upgrades with new ZK tech.
5) At least one ZK rollup will redesign deeply, similar to Arbitrum going from AVM to WAVM and Optimism from OVM to EVM-equiv to Bedrock.
6) There will be at least 5 production Optimism Bedrock adaptations with a TVL of 10M+
7) The L2 EVM "standard" will take shape due to friction holding back the most bespoke implementations (especially ZK tech). Due to equally bespoke funding/teams its standardization effort will be rejected by some legacy EVM-fluencers.
8) "EVM-equivalence" will be misused as much as "L2" today.
Like 7 custom tx types? 13 custom precompiles? Legacy opcodes? No 1559? No precompiles at all? No EOF support? Different gas prices? Custom log events? - Ugly, but reality for most L2s in 2023.
Like 7 custom tx types? 13 custom precompiles? Legacy opcodes? No 1559? No precompiles at all? No EOF support? Different gas prices? Custom log events? - Ugly, but reality for most L2s in 2023.
9) Cross-rollup composability will center around sequencing infrastructure. Atomic cross-ZK-rollup transactions will gain similar mindshare as atomic swaps today, but not change the L2 market.
10) EIP-4844 ("proto-danksharding") will ship on ethereum mainnet. 
11) Alt-L1s and L2s will adopt the EIP-4844 precompile quickly, but may take much longer to adopt the blobs tx-type due architecture differences (with the exception of beaconchain alts like Gnosis). The precompile will be big for bridges and oracle services on any EVM alt.
12) We will see new flashbots-like products that resell blobspace in smaller chunks than blobs, closely linked to EVM execution, to make bridges/oracles/L2s better.
13) The scourge roadmap will be the next ethereum roadmap item to go into the "Prague" update. 
14) The line between chains will start to blur due to EigenLayer, SUAVE and large L1 stakers (exchanges primarily) offering different sequencing-as-a-service solutions.
15) Account abstraction will continue to grow as a by-product of the Scourge/Sequencing developments, due to MEV priorities and coordination failure around opinionated EVM-design.
16) We will see at least one L2 pop up with anonymous founding team and 0-hardfork philosophy like Bitcoin. And perhaps it will run tx Script like Bitcoin.
17) More crypto hacks because why not
In millions USD:
'20: Defi rugs: Eminence, Harvest, Pickle Fi,...
'21: Thorchain (7), Mirror (90), Poly Network (600), Cream (140), Comp (147), Badger (120)
'22: BSC (568), Nomad (200), Harmony (100), Mango (115), Ronin (600), Wormhole (325)
In millions USD:
'20: Defi rugs: Eminence, Harvest, Pickle Fi,...
'21: Thorchain (7), Mirror (90), Poly Network (600), Cream (140), Comp (147), Badger (120)
'22: BSC (568), Nomad (200), Harmony (100), Mango (115), Ronin (600), Wormhole (325)
18) Bridge liquidity doesn't quite seem high enough to continue the trend on its own. Polygon is leading with ~2B - l2beat.com/bridges/tvl
So perhaps we see some chains fail?
So perhaps we see some chains fail?
19) Rust will gain more popularity in blockchain, even though Solana got a downturn - the rustaceans build on the bottom of the sea and resurface with new things.
20) Solana will not be the same, and either pivots or braindrains, and community shifts towards SUAVE-like chain(s) to build the fast trading ideology, but with onchain liquidity of other more stable/decentralized chains.
21) Devcon 7 will be in India or Vietnam.
EU>Asia>Americas
London>Shanghai>Cancun
Prague>Osaka>Bogota
*Amsterdam>Asia ???>Canada?
*devconnect, out of order due to covid moving Bogota
Instanbul gets EthGlobal in May.
EthIndia '23 not in ethglobal schedule yet?
Vietnam maybe?
EU>Asia>Americas
London>Shanghai>Cancun
Prague>Osaka>Bogota
*Amsterdam>Asia ???>Canada?
*devconnect, out of order due to covid moving Bogota
Instanbul gets EthGlobal in May.
EthIndia '23 not in ethglobal schedule yet?
Vietnam maybe?
22) We may see 3 ethereum hardforks this year (tm)
CL:
Capella 🦉
Deneb (ppl find dubhe too hard to spell...) - 🦢 instead of 🐻
Electra 🔋
EL:
Shanghai
Cancun
Prague
CL:
Capella 🦉
Deneb (ppl find dubhe too hard to spell...) - 🦢 instead of 🐻
Electra 🔋
EL:
Shanghai
Cancun
Prague
23) NFTs will be more and more about social communities - similar to web2.
Soulbound NFTs in a way become the web3 version of the "profile" part of an account. Nobody is particularly hyped about a profile feature, but each social platform absolutely needs them.
Soulbound NFTs in a way become the web3 version of the "profile" part of an account. Nobody is particularly hyped about a profile feature, but each social platform absolutely needs them.
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Anthony Sassano @sassal0x
·
Dec 31, 2022
This is a really great thread