A 🧵on what Fed minutes won't tell you but FRB/US model baseline (also published by Fed, but quietly, after Feb 1 meeting) does. 1) the staff model revised down output gap. Now it falls to negative in 3Q 2023 (recession, anyone?) twitter.com/AnnaEco

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I am the @FT’s European Economics Commentator & many other things. http://ft.com/martin-sandbu. Book: The Economics of Belonging (http://tinyurl.com/EcBelong). Views my own.