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David Cervantes

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Systematic strat mngr & PM. Macro analyst with SITG. California native. 3 languages/3 kids. UCSB Alum. Sometimes I cook/travel/snowboard/🍻🍷🍸

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David Cervantes @pinebrookcap · May 23, 2023
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Great thread. We’re all FX traders. We just don’t know it. Cc @mikeharrisNY

Tweet May 23, 2023
A thread on a not so hidden factor that impacts EPS... and still surprises analysts! The cheat code for EPS 6M out: the U.S. Dollar change over last 6M When the U.S. dollar rose over prior 6M, earnings grew 0.3% next 6m But when the U.S. dollar fe
by Jeremy Schwartz
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David Cervantes @pinebrookcap · May 18, 2023
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Great thread. I got panned for saying this a few wks ago but it’s kinda working. I think it’s still early days for an upswing. We need to get through 2023 with no recession first, which becomes more the base case as the calendar goes on without one.

Tweet May 18, 2023
Its been a long time since we have had a typical macro cycle, so folks have forgotten that late cycles are a) slow moving and b) slowdowns don't go in a straight line. Recent data suggests the US economy has reaccelerated a tad after a softer Feb &
by Bob Elliott
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David Cervantes @pinebrookcap · May 17, 2023
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Great thread. 1. The Fed is not backing off on inflation until the numbers get lower. Sry. I don’t make the rules. 2. The labor mkt is strong and is not an impediment.

Tweet May 17, 2023
Fed funds futures are pricing in about 60bps of rate cuts until the end of the year. Meanwhile, US core CPI is running at 5.5% YoY currently. How is this possible? When will/can the Fed start cutting rates? Some historical evidence that can serve as
by Patrick Saner
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David Cervantes @pinebrookcap · May 15, 2023
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Great thread.

Tweet May 14, 2023
@ben_moll is right to take a little victory lap in a new paper with @MSchularick and @GeorgZachmann. This is based on his his work with @BachmannRudi, @DBaqaee, @christianbaye13, @kuhnmo, @andreasloeschel, @APeichl, #KarenPittel, @MSchularick. Let me
by Gauti Eggertsson 🇺🇦
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David Cervantes @pinebrookcap · May 9, 2023
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Nice thread that sums up a lot of things I’ve been parroting since early this yr.

Tweet May 9, 2023
4 charts that imply that the US economic slowdown is easing. 1. Senior loan officers survey: degradation has slowed, which points to carry trades in credit & higher bond yields. Eco picture is adjusting to stable long rates. High rates may not matt
by Count Draghula
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David Cervantes @pinebrookcap · Apr 29, 2023
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Great article. The salient point for me is the game has changed, as I mused to @Jimmyjude13 last night. It’s a new era of complexity.

Article Apr 29, 2023
The Collapse of the Recession Wave Function – Price Action Lab Blog
by Michael Harris
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David Cervantes @pinebrookcap · Apr 28, 2023
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Shout out to some great work done by @RashadA334 and @menzie_chinn Both excellent follows.

Paper Dec, 2022
Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?
by Rashad Ahmed and Menzie Chinn
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