Bob Elliott

blog.unlimitedfunds.com

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CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | all comments are personal views and not investment advice

Overview Content

Tweet May 18, 2023

Its been a long time since we have had a typical macro cycle, so folks have forgotten that late cycles are a) slow moving and b) slowdowns don't go in a straight line. Recent data suggests the US economy has reaccelerated a tad after a softer Feb &

by Bob Elliott

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Tweet May 11, 2023

The US will not default once the debt limit is hit. While its fashionable to breathlessly talk of disaster, it indicates a poor knowledge of the mechanics. Treasury will prioritize debt payments. The gameplan is in place and has been discussed exte

by Bob Elliott

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Tweet Mar 14, 2023

The FDIC's 130bln insurance fund *currently* has enough resources to cover >$1tln of depositors if needed. That's because the FDIC doesn't pay out depositors entirely. It only pays out the incremental amount needed to make a failed bank's depositor

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Tweet Mar 13, 2023

Pricing switched from hikes to cuts in 72hrs, signaling small bank stress is enough to derail the macro strength. JP must be considering lessons of '98 right now when a financial panic drove Fed cuts and extended the tech bubble. Except this time t

by Bob Elliott

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Tweet Mar 10, 2023

The FDIC has taken SVB in receivership and will manage its resolution. This has happened hundreds of times over the last decades and there is a well tested game plan as I mentioned earlier. Thread.

by Bob Elliott

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Tweet Mar 10, 2023

The US banking system is built on the expectation that equity and bond holders accept the bank economic risk and depositors, particularly the small folks, do not. While that is not legally the structure, its important to keep in mind that's function

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Tweet Dec 31, 2022

While it may be difficult to predict the public markets in '23, it is pretty easy to figure out that Venture Funds are on track to lose $1 trillion in value from peak. The vast majority of these losses have yet to be recognized. '23 will bring more

by Bob Elliott

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Podcast episode Nov 8, 2022

Bob Elliott - A Macro Tour - [Invest Like the Best, EP.302]

by Patrick OShaughnessy and Bob Elliott