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Paulo Macro
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Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Not investment advice.
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Thread on UST funding and RRP. Backdrop: US treasury debt outstanding has gone from $22.7T to $33.2T over the past four years (9/30/19 to 9/30/23), and 30.9T a year ago. So +$2.3T 1y and +$10T 4y. The -12m deficit is $1.7T per below, as of 9/30 (Tre
by Paulo Macro
USD. Some clarification on my views is required because I get a lot of questions and confusion here - “wait you are bearish into, or bearish after the debt ceiling? But does that resolution matter? Absolutely nobody cares about the debt ceiling.” Le
by Paulo Macro
A lot of people weren’t there in 2008 or otherwise forget or misremember, but the Fed caught a lot of shit for Bear Stearns because they guaranteed $30bln of the worst pile of MBS sht you can imagine in exchange for JPM $2/sh bid — the BSC Madison Av
by Paulo Macro
A thread on where the US stands in its ongoing desire to learn Portuguese🧵 My bro @hkuppy has flagged an interesting development that I hadn’t fully appreciated in the context of #bigflip (hattip @INArteCarloDoss) until this weekend. Namely, the US
by Paulo Macro
Where systemic risk breeds crash risk - brief 🧵 GS flagging how 43% of options being traded expire in less than 24 hours. The market is now a toy for options daytraders. 1/7
by Paulo Macro
1/8 So I have been thinking quite a bit about Japan and the JPY / JGB 10y YCC setup here a lot in recent weeks, particularly in the context of how SNB bungled EURCHF years ago. I have an old expression I call “testing the fence.” This is now highl
by Paulo Macro
